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Elvire Fabry

Elvire Fabry

Elvire Fabry est chercheur senior à l’Institut Jacques Delors depuis 2009, en charge des ...
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Elvire Fabry dans le média chinois Sina Finance Channel à propos des relations commerciales entre la Chine et l'UE

le 09 Juin 2013 à 12:18
Mention par Elvire Fabry
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Elvire Fabry est mentionnée dans un article du média chinois Sina Finance Channel à propos des relations commerciales entre la Chine et l'UE, le 9 juin 2013.

文/新浪财经布鲁塞尔特约撰稿人 刘佳[微博]

  支持征收光伏反倾销税的4国分别为法国、意大利、葡萄牙及立陶宛,而前三国均属欧盟农产品(7.24,-0.17,-2.29%)出口大国,尤以葡萄酒生产为农业特色。纵中国驻欧盟使团称此举“谈不上报复”,即刻出击葡萄酒也绝非偶然。

法、意红酒商“躺着中枪”,而眼下“施法”的依旧是欧委会。(图片制作:刘佳 素材来源:riko cartoons,vlaamsbelang.org)   法、意红酒商“躺着中枪”,而眼下“施法”的依旧是欧委会。(图片制作:刘佳 素材来源:Riko Cartoons、Vlaamsbelang.org)

  葡萄酒反击欧洲何以一针见血?

  在欧盟宣布光伏案初判结果的几小时后,商务部即启动对欧盟产葡萄酒反倾销及反补贴调查。乍看中国有所回击并无意外,小有意外的则是选择葡萄酒而非外界早前猜测的多晶硅率先“开刀”。

  其实不然,多晶硅双反一案中德国企业受牵连至多,且德国政府先后多次宣称与中国“统一战线”,德国早已登上中国成功游说花名册。若当即宣判倾销成立,德国恐难免“负重伤”;若判倾销不成立,中国手中可打的牌就莫名少了一张。

  多晶硅一案裁决结果未立刻公布,很大程度上是保留其成为下一阶段僵持中彼此制衡的有效“筹码”。若纠纷白日化,中国手中还握有一张牵动德、法、意多头的“汽车王牌”。

  支持征收光伏反倾销税的4国分别为法国、意大利、葡萄牙及立陶宛,而前三国均属欧盟农产品出口大国,尤以葡萄酒生产为农业特色。纵中国驻欧盟使团称此举“谈不上报复”,即刻出击葡萄酒也绝非偶然。

根据商务部数据,2012年中国葡萄酒进口自欧盟总量达25.7万千升,约占同类产品进口总额的三分之二,价值约8亿欧元。欧盟国家中,法国份额最高。  根据商务部数据,2012年中国葡萄酒进口自欧盟总量达25.7万千升,约占同类产品进口总额的三分之二,价值约8亿欧元。欧盟国家中,法国份额最高。

  根据商务部数据,2012年中国葡萄酒进口自欧盟总量达25.7万千升,约占同类产品进口总额的三分之二,价值约8亿欧元。欧盟国家中,法国首 当其冲占据14.01万千升,紧随其后的便是意大利7.14万千升。葡萄牙出口至中国酒量目前虽极少,但大批本土酒商正酝酿着宏伟的“大中华”计划。

  瞄准欧盟最重视又颇敏感的农业,而相较于210亿欧元的光伏案,葡萄酒一案涉案金额有限又席卷主要反对国,火候把握之恰到好处的确难逃“蓄意”之嫌。

  法国“亡羊补牢”为时过晚?

  颇为讽刺的是,法国总统不久前因拍卖爱丽舍宫酒窖典藏红酒而遭致“卖国”骂名。如今,红酒再次令奥朗德头痛不已。一方面,奥朗德发表声明批评中国此举不当,另一方面又紧急召唤其他盟友召开特别峰会共商中欧贸易事宜。

  据布鲁塞尔互联网报纸《欧盟观察家》(EUObserver)报道称,欧委会主席已拒绝法国总统就中欧贸易纠纷召开27国首脑特别峰会的请求。就此巴罗佐新闻发言人回应新浪财经:“我认为如此斩钉截铁地描绘主席的评论是不正确的。”多少得给法国总统留足颜面。

  远在日本访问的奥朗德闻讯自然心急如焚,对中国可谓“日思夜想”,居然在日法新闻发布会上,误把“日本”唤作“中国”,引得日本政府一脸红。 “我代表法国人民向阿尔及利亚人质危机中遇难的中国人民表示慰问。”事实上1月遇难的是10名日本公民。总统或时差还未调正,或满脑中国想太多而条件反射。

  作为今年首个出访中国的欧盟成员国首脑,奥朗德本已完成其赴华“推销”计划,中法经贸关系有望节节攀升。而如今一张否定票却招来如此下场,或是利益博弈下法国不顾情面,又或是上任一年的奥朗德尚缺“教训”,权当是为如何与中国为友交了补习费。

  虽然奥朗德为中欧贸易量身定制特别峰会的计划泡汤了,但另有消息称定于本月27日举行的欧盟峰会上,中欧贸易关系有望成为额外的议题。

  中国和欧洲的下一张牌

  若纠纷不能妥善和解而愈演愈烈,那欧方下一张可能会打的便是之前亮过相的电信牌。被逼至极的中国也难保不再自我克制,转而甩出牵一发即动全身的汽车王牌。届时打击覆盖面及后果危害性将一发不可收拾。中欧贸易纽带之紧密经不起任何“连环计”折腾。

  德国外交关系理事会(DGAP)的Josef Janning主任将中国评述为欧盟国家“共同的朋友”。他向新浪财经分析称:“德国在光伏案中损失利益最大,且着眼于未来的中国市场准入,反对再自然不过。现在法国也因葡萄酒受到极大牵连,固然也再正襟危坐不了了。德法有可能迫于经济利益而达成‘联合声明’,要求欧委会终止征税。”

  法国智库NotreEurope Institute研究员ElvireFabry则评价:欧盟与成员国间的意见不协调早已不是什么新鲜事。她向新浪解释:“德法能否同盟态势还不明显。短期还是必须与欧委会谈判,表现出诚意会更有利于提前和解;中期看来,中国已获得多票支持,终裁更有利。”她指出此案最蹊跷处在于廉价光伏品倒像是在环保方面帮了欧盟一把。

  而卡内基国际和平基金会欧洲研究所(Carnegie Europe)主任Jan Techau对新浪分析称:“即便德法联盟也无用,现阶段没有‘一票否则制’,欧委会仍是唯一决定者。中国若企图利用成员国“离间”欧盟,那如意算盘可打错了。‘惩罚’法国激将不了欧盟,只会让其更坚定。”Techau指责是中国破坏了游戏规则,必须为此付出代价。


Traduction:

1. After EU's announcement to impose punitive tariff against Chinese solar panels, Chinese Ministry of Commerce launched the anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation on European wine, which French producers will largely be influenced. Clearly, it is a tit-for-tat strategy. And meanwhile, French President call the heads of member states to talk together, and France's Raffarin said a Franco-German summit is necessary to reach an agreement. It seems China makes use of the disagreement between Germany and France. Do you think if Germany and France start to "cooperate" on this issue, the solar dispute solutions between China and EU could by solved by the deadline Aug.5?

It is the European Commission which has the competence to decide on anti-dumping issues, under the control of the member states. Its recent decision over the Chinese solar panels is however temporary and will have to be confirmed by a majority of Member states on the medium run. Currently 18 of them are against it and it is not obvious that any Franco-German agreement on this issue could be reached, and then contribute to generate a majority of Member States in favor of maintaining the anti-dumping measures. But the dispute could also been solved more easily of the Chinese authorities shows their will to cooperate.

2.However, the spokesperson of Trade Commissioner confirmed with me that Commission hasn't changed its stance even after the wine probe:

"This staggered response allows (the a smooth transition for our markets to adapt – and it is a one-time offer to the Chinese side, providing a very clear incentive to negotiate. It provides a clear window of opportunity for negotiations, but the ball is now in China’s court. It is clear that if China does not provide a solution by August, then the higher tariffs will apply."

While member states are trying to protect their own interest respectively, especially France and Italy, who vote against solar case but could be heavily attacked by wine case. It also seems to indicate the incoherence and inconsistency of EU policy when practicing external actions. What would you comment on that?

There is nothing new in the procedure followed by the Commission on anti-dumping measures. Nothing new either when Member States continue on a day to day basis to work on the convergence of their national interest to foster a European common interest. The EU institutional set up is design to allow this progressive convergence, yet much energy is needed to activate this process because Member states have both defensive and offensive interests which vary a lot according to the sectors. The more interesting aspect of this debate is that it is representative of the increased impact of standards and non tariff barriers in trade: the solar panel dispute could have been avoided if the EU had anticipated the Chinese competition by setting specific norms for imports of solar panel in the EU. And the paradox is that by lowering the price of solar panels and developing this market, China is in some way aligning with European objectives concerning the fight against climate change!


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